Medium
assumptionscausationcorrelation

Which Assumption Must Be True for This Argument to Work?

Problem Statement

Argument: 'Sales increased after we launched the new website. Therefore, the new website caused the sales increase.' What assumption is required for this argument to be valid?

Answer

No other factors caused the sales increase

Step-by-Step Explanation

  1. 1

    The argument claims causation: new website → sales increase.

  2. 2

    For this to be valid, we must assume no other factors caused the increase.

  3. 3

    This is the assumption of 'no confounding variables.'

  4. 4

    Possible alternative explanations could include:

  5. 5

    - Seasonal trends

  6. 6

    - A competitor going out of business

  7. 7

    - A successful marketing campaign

  8. 8

    - Economic improvements

  9. 9

    The argument assumes: 'The new website was the only relevant change.'

  10. 10

    Without this assumption, correlation doesn't prove causation.